Rates of Total Joint Replacement Utilization in the U.S.: Future Projections to 2020-2040 Using the National Inpatient Sample

Jasvinder A. Singh and Shaohua Yu, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL

Meeting: 2017 ACR/ARHP Annual Meeting

Date of first publication: September 18, 2017

Keywords: Arthroplasty, epidemiologic methods and health, Hip, Knee

Session Information

Date: Sunday, November 5, 2017

Title: Orthopedics, Low Back Pain and Rehabilitation Poster

Session Type: ACR Poster Session A

Session Time: 9:00AM-11:00AM

Background/Purpose: To project the future utilization of total hip and knee joint arthroplasty (THA, TKA).

Methods: We used the 2000-2010 U.S. National Inpatient Sample combined with Census Bureau data to develop projections for primary and revision THA and TKA from 2020 to 2040 using negative binomial regression.
Results: Predicted total annual counts for THA and TKA utilization in the U.S. by 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2040 are (in thousands): primary THA, 527 (95% CI, 495, 561), 765 (95% CI, 712, 823), 1087 (95% CI, 999, 1184) and 2040 (95% CI, 1828, 2081); primary TKA, 1611 (95% CI, 1531, 1699), 2675 (95% CI, 2516, 2847); 4306 (95% CI, 4008, 4632) and 10314 (95% CI, 9391, 11343); revision THA 56 (95% CI, 51, 61), 68 (95% CI, 61, 76), 82 (95% CI, 72, 93) and 204 (95% CI, 183, 228); and revision TKA, 153 (95% CI, 140, 168), 250 (95% CI, 226, 279), 399 (95% CI, 353, 452) and 1031 ((95% CI, 939, 1134) (Figures 1 and 2). The utilization is projected to increase for both females and males (Figure 3), all age groups and all race/ethnicities (data not shown).

Conclusion: Significant increases in THA and TKA utilization are expected in the future. A policy change may be needed to meet increased demand.

FIGURES

Figure 1. The projected annual total utilization of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures (in thousands) in the United States from 2020 to 2040

Figure 2. The projected annual total utilization of revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures (in thousands) in the United States from 2020 to 2040

Figure 3. The projected annual total utilization of primary total Knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures in the United States from 2020 to 2040 by sex

Disclosure: J. A. Singh, Takeda and Savient, 2,Savient, Takeda, Regeneron, Merz, Iroko, Bioiberica, Crealta/Horizon and Allergan pharmaceuticals, WebMD, UBM LLC and the American College of Rheumatology., 5,JAS serves as the principal investigator for an investigator-initiated study funded by Horizon pharmaceuticals through a grant to DINORA, Inc., a 501 (c)(3) entity., 9,JAS is a member of the executive of OMERACT, an organization that develops outcome measures in rheumatology and receives arms-length funding from 36 companies., 9,JAS is the editor and the Director of the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis., 9,Jas is a member of the American College of Rheumatology's (ACR) Annual Meeting Planning Committee (AMPC); Chair of the ACR Meet-the-Professor, Workshop and Study Group Subcommittee., 9,a member of the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee, 9; S. Yu, None.

To cite this abstract in AMA style:

Singh JA, Yu S. Rates of Total Joint Replacement Utilization in the U.S.: Future Projections to 2020-2040 Using the National Inpatient Sample [abstract]. Arthritis Rheumatol. 2017; 69 (suppl 10). https://acrabstracts.org/abstract/rates-of-total-joint-replacement-utilization-in-the-u-s-future-projections-to-2020-2040-using-the-national-inpatient-sample/. Accessed .

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